Cascading Failure Network Topology
Pivot at T+10h | Simulation seed: 313 | Shadow313 NEXUS threat model | Ottawa, ON
50
D-Pivot Final
50
A-Pivot Final
0.008h
D: +10 Inst
0.008h
A: +10 Inst
$8.55B
D-Pivot Loss
$8.53B
A-Pivot Loss
Cascade Speed — Institutions Compromised Over Time
T+10h to T+22h
Key Findings
Both Pivots Reach Full Compromise in ~24 Minutes
The difference between D-pivot and A-pivot is less than 1 minute to full network compromise. Credential reuse (47% of propagation events) is so dominant that the starting archetype barely matters once the cascade begins.
D-Pivot Unlocks Fed Routing Immediately
D-pivot unlocks Federal Reserve routing at T+10h:00. A-pivot must wait until a 2nd-order D-arch institution falls — adding 0.5–2h delay before $1.8B/day Fed wire capacity is available.
Credential Vector Is the Real Choke Point
The network is so densely connected via credential reuse that no single institution is a meaningful chokepoint. The real intervention must be at the vector level — eliminating shared credentials across Temenos T24 institutions.
Propagation Vector Breakdown
Credential Reuse47%
Correspondent Pivot29%
Fed Routing24%
Archetype D Pivot Score: 136/130
Scores above maximum — only archetype combining CRITICAL credentials + Fed connection + T24 vendor + 18 correspondent relationships simultaneously.
Cascade Timeline Comparison
| Time | D-Pivot Inst. | A-Pivot Inst. | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| T+10.0h | 1 | 1 | Initial pivot — credential reuse begins |
| T+10.5h | 50 | 50 | Full network compromise — 30 min total |
| T+22.0h | 50 | 50 | Sustained FASTCash — $8.55B total loss |